Closing spread
KC -2
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.028
- 43.9%Success rate39.3%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.073
- +0.032EPA / rush-0.182
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 36.1%Third-down rate28.9%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 1.54Points / drive1.12
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/44 | 352 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Thomas | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/25 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 26 | 95 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 7 | 9 | 131 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52