Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.024
- 42.6%Success rate39.1%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.165
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.58CPOE-4.59
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.99Points / drive1.54
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/39 | 293 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 15/30 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88