2018 · Week 10

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

14·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -16.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.240EPA / play+0.236
  • 35.6%Success rate50.0%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.193EPA / rush+0.018
  • 6.0%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -7.13CPOE+4.64
  • 29.0%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 0.92Points / drive3.03
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1KC @ ARI44–21KC
2014 · W14KC @ ARI14–17ARI
2010 · W11ARI @ KC13–31KC
2006 · W5KC @ ARI23–20KC
2002 · W13ARI @ KC0–49KC
2001 · W6KC @ ARI16–24ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–KC
KCQ1 15:00375Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 14:041365Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 8:03722Field goal7–10
ARIQ1 3:0032Punt7–10
KCQ1 1:27854Field goal7–13
ARIQ2 12:29412Punt7–13
KCQ2 10:24973Touchdown7–20
ARIQ2 5:31622Punt7–20
KCQ2 1:46616Punt7–20
ARIQ2 0:2510End of half7–20
ARIQ3 15:001354Touchdown14–20
KCQ3 7:48938Punt14–20
ARIQ3 2:3239Punt14–20
KCQ3 0:20519Punt14–20
ARIQ4 12:50223Turnover14–20
KCQ4 12:12431Touchdown14–26
ARIQ4 10:1452Punt14–26
KCQ4 7:4933Punt14–26
ARIQ4 6:111226Turnover on downs14–26
KCQ4 2:4330Punt14–26
ARIQ4 2:201046Turnover14–26
KCQ4 0:1700End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen22/3920812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson21984.71
Chase Edmonds273.50
Josh Rosen1-1-1.00
J.J. Nelson1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson79851
Ricky Seals-Jones59510
Larry Fitzgerald610500
T.J. Logan22140
Christian Kirk2680
J.J. Nelson0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/2824920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt16714.40
Patrick Mahomes4215.30
Tyreek Hill12020.00
Spencer Ware263.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill7101172
Travis Kelce67460
Demarcus Robinson34300
Kareem Hunt22250
Chris Conley12220
Spencer Ware1170
Marcus Kemp0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+6.55