Closing spread
KC -16.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.236
- 35.6%Success rate50.0%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.193EPA / rush+0.018
- 6.0%Explosive rate12.1%
- -7.13CPOE+4.64
- 29.0%Third-down rate47.8%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 0.92Points / drive3.03
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 22/39 | 208 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 7 | 9 | 85 | 1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/28 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 10 | 117 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.55