Closing spread
KC -9
Total
47
Model margin
+6.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.161
- 38.4%Success rate47.5%
- -0.052EPA / dropback+0.224
- -0.160EPA / rush+0.083
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.6%
- 43.6%Third-down rate41.1%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.06Points / drive2.29
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/31 | 88 | 0 | 3 |
| Josh McCown | 4/12 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 7 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Nate Poole | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 2 | 10 | 32 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 5 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 14/20 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 4/5 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 16 | 113 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 2 | 2 | 30 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.23