2002 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

0·49

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

47

Model margin

+6.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.092EPA / play+0.161
  • 38.4%Success rate47.5%
  • -0.052EPA / dropback+0.224
  • -0.160EPA / rush+0.083
  • 7.2%Explosive rate11.6%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 1.06Points / drive2.29
  • 3.4%Turnover rate1.4%
  • +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1KC @ ARI44–21KC
2018 · W10ARI @ KC14–26KC
2014 · W14KC @ ARI14–17ARI
2010 · W11ARI @ KC13–31KC
2006 · W5KC @ ARI23–20KC
2001 · W6KC @ ARI16–24ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–KC
KCQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:27832Punt0–0
KCQ1 7:4638Punt0–0
ARIQ1 6:1431Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:16877Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 1:2743Opp touchdown0–14
KCQ1 0:0000Opp touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 15:001648Turnover on downs0–14
KCQ2 8:48675Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 5:1947Punt0–21
KCQ2 3:07551Touchdown0–28
ARIQ2 1:1429Turnover0–28
KCQ2 0:38554Touchdown0–35
ARIQ2 0:0710Turnover0–35
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt0–35
ARIQ3 13:354-5Turnover on downs0–35
KCQ3 12:051058Missed field goal0–35
ARIQ3 6:5630Turnover0–35
KCQ3 6:41540Touchdown0–42
ARIQ3 3:53632Turnover0–42
KCQ3 1:0237Punt0–42
ARIQ4 14:4848Punt0–42
KCQ4 12:50969Touchdown0–49
ARIQ4 7:576-4Punt0–49
KCQ4 6:1838Punt0–49
ARIQ4 3:593-15Punt0–49
KCQ4 3:25514End of half0–49

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer14/318803
Josh McCown4/124501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp14261.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcel Shipp79370
Nate Poole38350
Jason McAddley210320
Freddie Jones58290
Steve Bush1200
Arnold Jackson0300
Damien Anderson0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green14/2020920
Todd Collins4/55710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes161137.12
Eddie Kennison13131.00
Derrick Blaylock7233.30
Mike Cloud9202.20
Johnnie Morton11515.00
Todd Collins177.00
Jonathan Quinn1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez45741
Priest Holmes34560
Eddie Kennison45540
Marc Boerigter22302
Dante Hall22230
Johnnie Morton26180
Mike Cloud11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.5%

Expected total

47.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.23