Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.045
- 41.1%Success rate42.0%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.07CPOE-3.07
- 41.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.66Points / drive1.52
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 12:19 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 9:31 | 7 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q1 6:12 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 2:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q1 0:49 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q2 12:01 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 9:35 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q2 6:05 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 4:23 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q2 3:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:45 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q2 1:32 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| KC | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 6 | End of half | 10–17 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q3 13:37 | 6 | 25 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| KC | Q3 10:06 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 10–20 |
| ARI | Q3 7:55 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 10–20 |
| KC | Q3 2:50 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 10–20 |
| ARI | Q3 0:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| KC | Q4 13:39 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q4 9:35 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 17–20 |
| KC | Q4 7:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q4 5:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| KC | Q4 5:53 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| ARI | Q4 5:06 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 20–20 |
| KC | Q4 2:31 | 4 | 80 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| ARI | Q4 1:36 | 6 | 58 | Missed field goal | 23–20 |
| KC | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 26/38 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 22/35 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 71 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14