Closing spread
KC -7
Total
45
Model margin
+5.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.220EPA / play+0.034
- 37.1%Success rate42.3%
- -0.248EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -9.59CPOE-1.87
- 27.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.06Points / drive1.70
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 25/46 | 295 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 5 | 12 | 92 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 11 | 90 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 6 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/24 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 8 | 109 | 2 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.36