2010 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Derek Anderson

13·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

45

Model margin

+5.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.220EPA / play+0.034
  • 37.1%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.248EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.031
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -9.59CPOE-1.87
  • 27.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.70
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1KC @ ARI44–21KC
2018 · W10ARI @ KC14–26KC
2014 · W14KC @ ARI14–17ARI
2006 · W5KC @ ARI23–20KC
2002 · W13ARI @ KC0–49KC
2001 · W6KC @ ARI16–24ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–KC
ARIQ1 15:00856Field goal3–0
KCQ1 10:24521Punt3–0
ARIQ1 8:15425Punt3–0
KCQ1 5:16431Punt3–0
ARIQ1 2:3539Punt3–0
KCQ1 0:33438Touchdown3–7
ARIQ2 13:3539Punt3–7
KCQ2 12:26648Touchdown3–14
ARIQ2 10:14841Punt3–14
KCQ2 7:12636Punt3–14
ARIQ2 3:37733Punt3–14
KCQ2 0:5740Turnover on downs3–14
KCQ3 15:00980Touchdown3–21
ARIQ3 9:59969Field goal6–21
KCQ3 4:553-6Punt6–21
ARIQ3 3:54528Punt6–21
KCQ3 1:0435Punt6–21
ARIQ4 14:4230Punt6–21
KCQ4 13:35957Field goal6–24
ARIQ4 8:12732Turnover on downs6–24
KCQ4 5:39342Touchdown6–31
ARIQ4 4:201580Touchdown13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson25/4629510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower12625.20
Chris Wells8394.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston512920
Larry Fitzgerald611901
Andre Roberts611520
Ben Patrick33240
Tim Hightower34240
Early Doucet24130
Jim Dray0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel15/2419320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles12887.30
Thomas Jones15714.72
Jackie Battle100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe681092
Jamaal Charles45380
Jake O'Connell22240
Verran Tucker14130
Terrance Copper1150
Chris Chambers1240
Leonard Pope0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.36