2022 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

44·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

KC -6

Total

54

Model margin

-3.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.081
  • 50.6%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +3.02CPOE-1.70
  • 49.4%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.60
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W10ARI @ KC14–26KC
2014 · W14KC @ ARI14–17ARI
2010 · W11ARI @ KC13–31KC
2006 · W5KC @ ARI23–20KC
2002 · W13ARI @ KC0–49KC
2001 · W6KC @ ARI16–24ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–ARI
KCQ1 15:001175Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:3732Punt7–0
KCQ1 7:43966Touchdown14–0
ARIQ1 3:201183Touchdown14–7
KCQ2 13:051160Touchdown20–7
ARIQ2 7:3236Punt20–7
KCQ2 6:03517Punt20–7
ARIQ2 3:03527Punt20–7
KCQ2 1:05119Turnover20–7
ARIQ2 0:5848Turnover on downs20–7
KCQ2 0:35530Field goal23–7
ARIQ2 0:0200End of half23–7
ARIQ3 15:0055Punt23–7
KCQ3 12:07566Touchdown30–7
ARIQ3 9:5535Punt30–7
KCQ3 8:49971Touchdown37–7
ARIQ3 3:561475Touchdown37–15
KCQ4 12:52966Touchdown44–15
ARIQ4 7:39648Touchdown44–21
KCQ4 5:11518Punt44–21
ARIQ4 1:46824End of half44–21

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes30/3936050

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco12625.21
Clyde Edwards-Helaire7426.00
Jerick McKinnon4225.50
Patrick Mahomes351.70
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce891211
JuJu Smith-Schuster68790
Marquez Valdes-Scantling44440
Clyde Edwards-Helaire33322
Skyy Moore11300
Jerick McKinnon34270
Mecole Hardman36161
Noah Gray12100
Joseph Fortson1111
Justin Watson0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3419320
Trace McSorley2/41200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray5295.80
Eno Benjamin4287.00
James Conner10262.61
Trace McSorley3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dortch79630
Marquise Brown46431
Eno Benjamin34330
James Conner56290
Zach Ertz24141
A.J. Green24130
Andy Isabella13100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.96