Closing spread
KC -6
Total
54
Model margin
-3.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.081
- 50.6%Success rate40.7%
- +0.273EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- +3.02CPOE-1.70
- 49.4%Third-down rate35.4%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.71Points / drive1.60
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/39 | 360 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 32 | 2 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/34 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 2/4 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Trace McSorley | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.96