Closing spread
STL -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 9/13 | 74 | 1 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 9/14 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Becht | 5 | 6 | 35 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 5 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.