Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/19 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 26 | 149 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Leon Washington | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.