Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:06 | 4 | 61 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 6:55 | 5 | 23 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| LA | Q1 4:45 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:09 | 13 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| LA | Q2 12:05 | 6 | 0 | Punt | 0–24 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:44 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 0–27 |
| LA | Q2 6:53 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:28 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 0–30 |
| LA | Q2 3:55 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 0–30 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:22 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–37 |
| LA | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 13 | Turnover | 0–37 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 7 | Field goal | 0–40 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 7 | Field goal | 0–40 |
| LA | Q3 13:52 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 3–40 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–40 |
| LA | Q3 7:43 | 12 | 58 | Turnover | 3–40 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:11 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 3–47 |
| LA | Q4 12:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–47 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:09 | 13 | 70 | End of half | 3–47 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/19 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 26 | 149 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Leon Washington | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.