Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 15/20 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Joe McKnight | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaz Schilens | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.