2012 · Week 11

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

27·13

Rams

St. Louis

QB Sam Bradford

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

STL -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+3.6est.

STL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

STL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16LA @ NYJ19–9RAMS
2020 · W15NYJ @ LA23–20NYJ
2016 · W10LA @ NYJ9–6RAMS
2008 · W10STL @ NYJ3–47NYJ
2004 · W17NYJ @ STL29–32RAMS
2001 · W6STL @ NYJ34–14RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–STL
NYJQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:161386Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 3:45630Field goal3–7
LAQ1 0:4445Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 13:5335Missed field goal3–7
LAQ2 11:48417Punt3–7
NYJQ2 9:35620Turnover on downs3–7
LAQ2 6:50320Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 5:12228Touchdown10–7
LAQ2 4:3136Punt10–7
NYJQ2 2:52538Field goal13–7
LAQ2 0:5739Punt13–7
NYJQ2 0:1800End of half13–7
LAQ3 15:00626Punt13–7
NYJQ3 11:23841Punt13–7
LAQ3 7:423-4Punt13–7
NYJQ3 6:141263Touchdown20–7
LAQ4 14:16417Turnover20–7
NYJQ4 12:15738Touchdown27–7
LAQ4 8:29761Touchdown27–13
NYJQ4 5:403-3Punt27–13
LAQ4 4:28913Turnover on downs27–13
NYJQ4 3:123-3Missed field goal27–13
LAQ4 1:56725Turnover on downs27–13
NYJQ4 0:4100End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez15/2017810
Tim Tebow1/1-100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene18643.60
Bilal Powell11423.82
Joe McKnight4143.50
Clyde Gates11212.00
Jeremy Kerley1-1-1.00
Mark Sanchez4-2-0.50
Tim Tebow2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chaz Schilens45481
Jeremy Kerley33430
Joe McKnight12180
Bilal Powell22180
Konrad Reuland11180
Dustin Keller22160
Clyde Gates12100
Jeff Cumberland1170
Stephen Hill0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.58

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.