Closing spread
LA -1
Total
39
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.069
- 36.6%Success rate40.5%
- -0.222EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.070
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- -6.92CPOE-4.70
- 32.2%Third-down rate36.5%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 0.97Points / drive1.40
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 17/30 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 7 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 19/32 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 98 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.27