Closing spread
LA -17.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.013
- 40.9%Success rate44.6%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.07CPOE+0.37
- 34.4%Third-down rate44.2%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.24Points / drive1.76
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/31 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/34 | 209 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.54