2020 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

23·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -17.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRams
  • -0.116EPA / play-0.013
  • 40.9%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.07CPOE+0.37
  • 34.4%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.76
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16LA @ NYJ19–9RAMS
2016 · W10LA @ NYJ9–6RAMS
2012 · W11NYJ @ STL27–13NYJ
2008 · W10STL @ NYJ3–47NYJ
2004 · W17NYJ @ STL29–32RAMS
2001 · W6STL @ NYJ34–14RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–LA
LAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:371374Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 6:25418Punt7–0
NYJQ1 4:0243Punt7–0
LAQ1 1:3347Punt7–0
NYJQ2 14:1436Field goal10–0
LAQ2 12:4449Turnover10–0
NYJQ2 9:4647Field goal13–0
LAQ2 7:3733Punt13–0
NYJQ2 6:0435Punt13–0
LAQ2 3:55718Punt13–0
NYJQ2 1:4839Punt13–0
LAQ2 0:57734Field goal13–3
NYJQ3 15:001172Touchdown20–3
LAQ3 8:30575Touchdown20–10
NYJQ3 6:09972Field goal23–10
LAQ3 1:39764Touchdown23–17
NYJQ4 13:47421Punt23–17
LAQ4 11:481051Field goal23–20
NYJQ4 6:3532Punt23–20
LAQ4 5:33516Turnover on downs23–20
NYJQ4 3:54521End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold22/3120710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore23592.61
Sam Darnold5183.60
Ty Johnson3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder68660
Chris Herndon34480
Ty Johnson66391
Breshad Perriman11210
Denzel Mims34180
Braxton Berrios2390
Frank Gore1160

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3420921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers15634.20
Robert Woods14040.00
Jared Goff199.00
Malcolm Brown144.00
Darrell Henderson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee45671
Robert Woods67561
Cooper Kupp55390
Gerald Everett25280
Josh Reynolds2290
Malcolm Brown1160
Darrell Henderson1150
Van Jefferson0100
Cam Akers13-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +17.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

39.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.54