Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/36 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 28 | 153 | 5.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.