Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:53 | 3 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:59 | 14 | 42 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:13 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:15 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:10 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:54 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 4:14 | 7 | 57 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:07 | 1 | 44 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:00 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 10–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 34 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:30 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LA | Q3 13:19 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:25 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| LA | Q3 9:56 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 20–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:56 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 20–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:30 | 7 | 28 | Opp touchdown | 26–21 |
| LA | Q3 1:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 26–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:42 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 26–21 |
| LA | Q4 13:11 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 26–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 26–21 |
| LA | Q4 9:55 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 26–29 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:06 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 29–29 |
| LA | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–29 |
| LA | OT | 5 | 37 | Punt | 29–29 |
| NYJ | OT | 6 | 24 | Punt | 29–29 |
| LA | OT | 3 | 8 | Punt | 29–29 |
| NYJ | OT | 6 | 36 | Missed field goal | 29–29 |
| LA | OT | 5 | 44 | Field goal | 29–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/36 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 28 | 153 | 5.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.