Closing spread
LA -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.001
- 47.5%Success rate43.0%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.108
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.97CPOE-1.89
- 37.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.09Points / drive1.85
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/19 | 110 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 8 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/42 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 68 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.39