2024 · Week 16

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

19·9

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 23°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

47

Model margin

+0.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapJets
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.001
  • 47.5%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.108
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.97CPOE-1.89
  • 37.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.85
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W15NYJ @ LA23–20NYJ
2016 · W10LA @ NYJ9–6RAMS
2012 · W11NYJ @ STL27–13NYJ
2008 · W10STL @ NYJ3–47NYJ
2004 · W17NYJ @ STL29–32RAMS
2001 · W6STL @ NYJ34–14RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NYJ
LAQ1 15:001142Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:451499Touchdown0–6
LAQ1 0:231142Turnover0–6
NYJQ2 9:2349Turnover on downs0–6
LAQ2 7:56333Touchdown6–6
NYJQ2 6:221682Field goal6–9
NYJQ3 15:001778Turnover on downs6–9
LAQ3 5:151359Field goal9–9
NYJQ4 12:443-7Turnover9–9
LAQ4 11:43321Touchdown16–9
NYJQ4 10:11516Turnover on downs16–9
LAQ4 8:23544Field goal19–9
NYJQ4 5:171044Missed field goal19–9
LAQ4 1:5735Punt19–9
LAQ4 1:3400End of half19–9

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford14/1911011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams231225.31
Blake Corum5142.80
Matthew Stafford3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua89560
Cooper Kupp33240
Tutu Atwell12120
Tyler Higbee12111
Kyren Williams1170
Demarcus Robinson0100
Colby Parkinson0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4225610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall14523.70
Isaiah Davis3124.00
Aaron Rodgers166.00
Braelon Allen252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams713681
Tyler Conklin57590
Garrett Wilson67540
Breece Hall56380
Allen Lazard25200
Jeremy Ruckert22120
Braelon Allen1150
Kenny Yeboah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.39