Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play-0.101
- 39.7%Success rate39.1%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.192
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- 42.1%Third-down rate33.9%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.49Points / drive0.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/35 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 51 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 7 | 10 | 100 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shad Meier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 25/42 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Warren | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 9 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| Germane Crowell | 4 | 9 | 65 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brad Banta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04