2001 · Week 6

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

27·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

TEN -5.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapLions
  • -0.011EPA / play-0.101
  • 39.7%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.192
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
  • 1.49Points / drive0.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed+0.064

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8TEN @ DET14–52DET
2020 · W15DET @ TEN25–46TEN
2016 · W2TEN @ DET16–15TEN
2012 · W3DET @ TEN41–44TEN
2008 · W13TEN @ DET47–10TEN
2004 · W17DET @ TEN19–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DET
TENQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:331030Turnover0–0
TENQ1 10:13629Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:13512Punt0–0
TENQ1 5:12729Field goal3–0
DETQ1 1:1247Punt3–0
TENQ2 14:051369Field goal6–0
DETQ2 7:13312Punt6–0
TENQ2 5:0439Turnover6–0
DETQ2 3:38326Touchdown6–7
TENQ2 2:1431Punt6–13
DETQ2 1:37146Touchdown6–14
TENQ2 1:301054Field goal9–14
DETQ3 15:00533Opp touchdown17–14
TENQ3 12:1400Opp touchdown17–14
DETQ3 12:1449Punt17–14
TENQ3 9:4239Punt17–14
DETQ3 7:1420Turnover17–14
TENQ3 6:453-1Punt17–14
DETQ3 5:4135Punt17–14
TENQ3 4:0567Punt17–14
DETQ3 1:421581Field goal17–17
TENQ4 9:38875Touchdown24–17
DETQ4 4:41723Turnover on downs24–17
TENQ4 2:4533Punt24–17
DETQ4 2:18979Touchdown24–24
TENQ4 1:18340Field goal27–24
DETQ4 0:0500End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair15/3521612
Frank Wycheck1/12100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George26512.00
Steve McNair5489.60
Skip Hicks122.00
Frank Wycheck111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck7101001
Drew Bennett17500
Derrick Mason36470
Kevin Dyson25170
Erron Kinney23140
Eddie George1290
Chris Coleman0100
Shad Meier0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch25/4233831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamont Warren6183.00
James Stewart9171.90
Charlie Batch231.50
Desmond Howard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton991131
Germane Crowell49651
David Sloan36410
Desmond Howard12361
Lamont Warren23160
Larry Foster14130
Pete Mitchell11120
James Stewart11100
Brad Banta0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04