Closing spread
TEN -11
Total
43.5
Model margin
-5.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.162
- 41.7%Success rate36.3%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.44CPOE-3.61
- 36.7%Third-down rate28.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.21
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 11/18 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 1/1 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 2 |
| LenDale White | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 13/26 | 134 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Henson | 1/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.92