2012 · Week 3

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

41·44

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapTitans
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.093
  • 45.2%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.29CPOE-2.87
  • 41.4%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.29
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 57.7 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8TEN @ DET14–52DET
2020 · W15DET @ TEN25–46TEN
2016 · W2TEN @ DET16–15TEN
2008 · W13TEN @ DET47–10TEN
2004 · W17DET @ TEN19–24TEN
2001 · W6TEN @ DET27–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–TEN
DETQ1 15:00839Field goal3–0
TENQ1 11:38635Turnover3–0
DETQ1 8:52519Field goal6–0
TENQ1 6:36861Field goal6–3
DETQ1 2:0235Opp touchdown6–10
DETQ1 0:3336Punt6–10
TENQ2 14:12254Touchdown6–17
DETQ2 13:001265Field goal9–17
TENQ2 6:3038Punt9–17
DETQ2 5:02519Punt9–17
TENQ2 2:17850Field goal9–20
TENQ3 15:001252Missed field goal9–20
DETQ3 9:30869Touchdown16–20
TENQ3 6:36855Missed field goal16–20
DETQ3 2:181055Field goal19–20
TENQ4 12:3926Turnover19–20
DETQ4 11:50946Touchdown27–26
TENQ4 6:5300Touchdown27–27
DETQ4 6:41516Punt27–27
TENQ4 3:30271Touchdown27–34
DETQ4 3:11852Opp touchdown27–41
DETQ4 1:16776Touchdown34–41
TENQ4 0:1800Touchdown34–41
DETQ4 0:16246Touchdown41–41
TENOT1245Field goal41–44
DETOT970Turnover on downs41–44

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford33/4227810
Shaun Hill10/1317220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure261003.81
Joique Bell5234.60
Matthew Stafford2126.00
Nate Burleson273.50
Shaun Hill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson10121641
Titus Young67751
Nate Burleson1012691
Brandon Pettigrew812610
Joique Bell45440
Mikel Leshoure44340
Stefan Logan1130
Will Heller0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker29/4237820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Locker4358.80
Chris Johnson14241.70
Darius Reynaud100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington331121
Jared Cook44771
Craig Stevens57630
Kenny Britt611550
Kendall Wright711410
Damian Williams23200
Chris Johnson1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

6.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.61