Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.093
- 45.2%Success rate38.0%
- +0.056EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.29CPOE-2.87
- 41.4%Third-down rate38.2%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.29
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 33/42 | 278 | 1 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 10/13 | 172 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 12 | 164 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 6 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 10 | 12 | 69 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 8 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 29/42 | 378 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 3 | 3 | 112 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 4 | 77 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 6 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61