Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.012
- 39.8%Success rate41.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.091
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- 32.3%Third-down rate34.6%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.23Points / drive1.47
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 33/49 | 346 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 72 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 16/28 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2/5 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Troy Fleming | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.28