Closing spread
TEN -9.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.189
- 45.5%Success rate50.8%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.156EPA / rush+0.070
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.27CPOE+2.16
- 41.6%Third-down rate47.4%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.14Points / drive2.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/32 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 5/6 | 55 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 10 | 12 | 112 | 1 |
| Hunter Bryant | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 1 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/27 | 273 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 147 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Darrynton Evans | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Logan Woodside | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 4 | 6 | 110 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
49.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.90