2020 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

25·46

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -9.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapTitans
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.189
  • 45.5%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.297
  • -0.156EPA / rush+0.070
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.27CPOE+2.16
  • 41.6%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 2.14Points / drive2.85
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 57.7 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8TEN @ DET14–52DET
2016 · W2TEN @ DET16–15TEN
2012 · W3DET @ TEN41–44TEN
2008 · W13TEN @ DET47–10TEN
2004 · W17DET @ TEN19–24TEN
2001 · W6TEN @ DET27–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–TEN
TENQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 8:401475Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 1:34175Touchdown7–14
DETQ1 1:22826Punt7–14
TENQ2 12:42970Touchdown7–21
DETQ2 9:28972Turnover7–21
TENQ2 4:122-3Safety9–21
DETQ2 3:31555Touchdown15–21
TENQ2 1:02757Field goal15–24
DETQ3 15:001164Turnover15–24
TENQ3 9:22825Punt15–24
DETQ3 5:58646Field goal18–24
TENQ3 4:09983Touchdown18–32
DETQ4 14:30416Turnover on downs18–32
TENQ4 12:02639Touchdown18–39
DETQ4 9:00660Touchdown25–39
TENQ4 6:231045Touchdown25–46
DETQ4 2:07316Turnover25–46
TENQ4 1:3200End of half25–46

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3225210
Chase Daniel5/65501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift15674.52
Adrian Peterson6233.80
Matthew Stafford2126.00
Chase Daniel11111.00
Jamal Agnew177.00
T.J. Hockenson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones10121121
Hunter Bryant12440
Mohamed Sanu45380
Quintez Cephus13360
Danny Amendola34200
T.J. Hockenson24180
D'Andre Swift45150
Jamal Agnew11130
Jesse James11110

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/2727330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241476.11
Darrynton Evans8303.80
Ryan Tannehill3217.02
Logan Woodside3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis461101
Jonnu Smith55520
A.J. Brown56441
Darrynton Evans22271
Anthony Firkser11200
MyCole Pruitt12100
Derrick Henry2250
Jeremy McNichols1150
Cameron Batson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

49.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.90