2024 · Week 8

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

14·52

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -12.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapLions
  • -0.104EPA / play+0.156
  • 40.4%Success rate49.6%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.175EPA / rush+0.021
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +0.11CPOE+5.81
  • 38.0%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 1.35Points / drive3.02
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W15DET @ TEN25–46TEN
2016 · W2TEN @ DET16–15TEN
2012 · W3DET @ TEN41–44TEN
2008 · W13TEN @ DET47–10TEN
2004 · W17DET @ TEN19–24TEN
2001 · W6TEN @ DET27–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DET
DETQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:57417Turnover0–0
DETQ1 10:59216Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 10:31419Punt0–7
DETQ1 8:154-4Punt0–7
TENQ1 6:20475Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 4:07170Touchdown7–14
TENQ1 3:57990Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 14:18412Touchdown14–21
TENQ2 12:5110Turnover14–21
DETQ2 12:39412Touchdown14–28
TENQ2 11:37934Punt14–28
DETQ2 6:17722Touchdown14–35
TENQ2 2:181150Turnover on downs14–35
DETQ2 0:1711End of half14–35
TENQ3 15:0039Opp touchdown14–42
TENQ3 12:4634Punt14–42
DETQ3 11:5068Punt14–42
TENQ3 7:4313Turnover14–42
DETQ3 7:37326Touchdown14–49
TENQ3 6:1233Punt14–49
DETQ3 5:08748Field goal14–52
TENQ3 1:08748Turnover14–52
DETQ4 12:5233Punt14–52
TENQ4 10:52514Punt14–52
DETQ4 8:1536Punt14–52
TENQ4 6:451250End of half14–52

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph22/3826612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard20944.70
Julius Chestnut7324.60
Mason Rudolph4297.31
Calvin Ridley133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley10151430
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine24391
Josh Whyle22330
Tony Pollard34230
Tyler Boyd36140
Chig Okonkwo25140
Nick Vannett0100
Jha'Quan Jackson0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff12/158530
Hendon Hooker2/3600
David Montgomery1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs1112711.51
David Montgomery9333.71
Craig Reynolds331.00
Jared Goff111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sam LaPorta66481
Kalif Raymond22141
Brock Wright1181
Amon-Ra St. Brown2271
Jahmyr Gibbs1160
Isaiah Williams2360
David Montgomery1150
Allen Robinson0100
Tim Patrick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.91