Closing spread
DET -12.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.156
- 40.4%Success rate49.6%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.175EPA / rush+0.021
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.5%
- +0.11CPOE+5.81
- 38.0%Third-down rate48.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 1.35Points / drive3.02
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 22/38 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 10 | 15 | 143 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jha'Quan Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 12/15 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| Hendon Hooker | 2/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 127 | 11.5 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91