Closing spread
DET -6
Total
48
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.054
- 45.5%Success rate45.4%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.187
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.12CPOE+0.07
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.7%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.72Points / drive2.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 25/33 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/40 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 11 | 118 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.18