Closing spread
DET -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.101
- 39.0%Success rate39.1%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- 37.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 0.98Points / drive0.89
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/27 | 204 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 27 | 184 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 6 | 7 | 99 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 20/35 | 239 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Warren | 15 | 23 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 4 | 34 | 2 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22