2017 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

17·26

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBengals
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.088
  • 40.8%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.278EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.41CPOE-1.89
  • 38.4%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.49
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DET @ CIN37–24DET
2021 · W6CIN @ DET34–11CIN
2013 · W7CIN @ DET27–24CIN
2009 · W13DET @ CIN13–23CIN
2005 · W15CIN @ DET41–17CIN
2001 · W7CIN @ DET31–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CIN
CINQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:30613Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:30310Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:3939Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:173-3Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:48452Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 4:541043Turnover7–0
DETQ2 14:5139Punt7–0
CINQ2 12:231168Field goal7–3
DETQ2 7:35733Punt7–3
CINQ2 2:33415Punt7–3
DETQ2 1:41318Turnover7–3
CINQ2 1:01839Field goal7–6
DETQ3 15:001061Field goal10–6
CINQ3 9:26850Touchdown10–13
DETQ3 5:5259Missed field goal10–13
CINQ3 3:461043Field goal10–16
DETQ4 14:131075Touchdown17–16
CINQ4 9:491239Field goal17–19
DETQ4 4:424-3Punt17–19
CINQ4 3:42740Touchdown17–26
DETQ4 1:5460Turnover on downs17–26
CINQ4 0:5300End of half17–26

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3520311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tion Green7436.11
Ameer Abdullah6213.50
Theo Riddick8162.00
Matthew Stafford177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron58831
Marvin Jones35500
Kenny Golladay48280
Theo Riddick34230
Golden Tate36140
Ameer Abdullah1250
Michael Roberts0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/4123811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard231165.01
Brian Hill4174.30
Joe Mixon3124.00
Andy Dalton3-1-0.30
Josh Malone1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green610810
Giovani Bernard77520
Tyler Boyd56390
Brian Hill11340
Joe Mixon23200
Brandon LaFell4680
Tyler Kroft1530
C.J. Uzomah1111
Josh Malone0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.49