Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.088
- 40.8%Success rate39.2%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.41CPOE-1.89
- 38.4%Third-down rate34.7%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.78Points / drive1.49
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/35 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tion Green | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/41 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 23 | 116 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.49