2021 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

34·11

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapLions
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.061
  • 44.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.123
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +5.14CPOE-0.05
  • 40.1%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.73
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DET @ CIN37–24DET
2017 · W16DET @ CIN17–26CIN
2013 · W7CIN @ DET27–24CIN
2009 · W13DET @ CIN13–23CIN
2005 · W15CIN @ DET41–17CIN
2001 · W7CIN @ DET31–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:46861Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 8:2637Punt7–0
CINQ1 6:22715Turnover7–0
DETQ1 2:212-10Turnover7–0
CINQ1 1:58412Punt7–0
DETQ2 14:48934Turnover on downs7–0
CINQ2 10:423-2Punt7–0
DETQ2 8:21920Punt7–0
CINQ2 3:0437Punt7–0
DETQ2 1:473-4Punt7–0
CINQ2 1:21856Field goal10–0
CINQ3 15:00875Touchdown17–0
DETQ3 10:4039Punt17–0
CINQ3 9:131058Field goal20–0
DETQ3 3:38435Punt20–0
CINQ3 2:30895Touchdown27–0
DETQ4 12:381258Field goal27–3
CINQ4 8:36712Touchdown34–3
DETQ4 5:161275Touchdown34–11
CINQ4 2:15312End of half34–11

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow19/2927131
Brandon Allen1/1710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18945.20
Joe Burrow5204.00
Chris Evans4184.50
Trayveon Williams6132.20
Brandon Allen3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase46970
Joe Mixon56591
Chris Evans33491
Tee Higgins36440
C.J. Uzomah33151
Tyler Boyd1370
Auden Tate1171
Drew Sample0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff28/4220201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13241.81
Jamaal Williams4112.80
Jared Goff111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson811740
D'Andre Swift57430
Kalif Raymond67370
Amon-Ra St. Brown57260
Tom Kennedy11150
KhaDarel Hodge2490
Jamaal Williams12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.11