Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.061
- 44.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.123
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +5.14CPOE-0.05
- 40.1%Third-down rate34.7%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 2.38Points / drive1.73
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 19/29 | 271 | 3 | 1 |
| Brandon Allen | 1/1 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 97 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Chris Evans | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 28/42 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.11