Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.102
- 48.2%Success rate38.8%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.109
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.090
- 9.1%Explosive rate5.7%
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 2.30Points / drive1.20
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 28/39 | 274 | 3 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 2/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/21 | 138 | 1 | 3 |
| Joey Harrington | 6/7 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10