Closing spread
CIN -13.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play-0.019
- 39.2%Success rate42.9%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.082
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -6.85CPOE-0.82
- 35.8%Third-down rate41.6%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.11Points / drive1.65
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 11/26 | 143 | 1 | 2 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2/3 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/29 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 36 | 110 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 9 | 14 | 137 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.60