2009 · Week 13

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

13·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -13.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBengals
  • -0.169EPA / play-0.019
  • 39.2%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -6.85CPOE-0.82
  • 35.8%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.11Points / drive1.65
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DET @ CIN37–24DET
2021 · W6CIN @ DET34–11CIN
2017 · W16DET @ CIN17–26CIN
2013 · W7CIN @ DET27–24CIN
2005 · W15CIN @ DET41–17CIN
2001 · W7CIN @ DET31–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CIN
DETQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:4847Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:14630Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:28927Turnover6–0
DETQ1 3:36154Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 3:27413Punt7–0
DETQ1 1:221021Opp touchdown7–7
DETQ2 11:5036Punt7–7
CINQ2 10:13870Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 5:5538Missed field goal7–14
CINQ2 4:54516Punt7–14
DETQ2 2:11610Punt7–14
CINQ2 1:08441Field goal7–17
DETQ2 0:0900End of half7–17
CINQ3 15:001167Field goal7–20
DETQ3 8:0330Punt7–20
CINQ3 6:1160Turnover7–20
DETQ3 4:053-5Punt7–20
CINQ3 3:091679Field goal7–23
DETQ4 8:11326Turnover7–23
CINQ4 7:033-3Turnover7–23
DETQ4 6:03524Turnover on downs7–23
CINQ4 3:3637Punt7–23
DETQ4 2:56558Touchdown13–23
CINQ4 1:3600End of half13–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford11/2614312
Daunte Culpepper2/34900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith16754.71
Daunte Culpepper177.00
Matthew Stafford3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson6111231
Kevin Smith23290
Maurice Morris11110
Will Heller14110
Casey Fitzsimmons1290
Bryant Johnson1450
Dennis Northcutt1240
Aaron Brown0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer17/2922012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson361103.10
Carson Palmer571.40
Larry Johnson242.00
Quan Cosby1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson9141371
Laveranues Coles24250
Brian Leonard22250
J.P. Foschi13160
Cedric Benson22150
Daniel Coats0100
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.60