Closing spread
DET -10.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.012
- 45.0%Success rate46.4%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.012
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.64CPOE+1.28
- 39.2%Third-down rate44.3%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 2.54Points / drive1.93
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/23 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 9 | 100 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 6 | 92 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 26/40 | 251 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 10 | 110 | 2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 7 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.85
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.44