2025 · Week 5

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

37·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 84°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DET -10.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBengals
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.012
  • 45.0%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.012
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.64CPOE+1.28
  • 39.2%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 2.54Points / drive1.93
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W6CIN @ DET34–11CIN
2017 · W16DET @ CIN17–26CIN
2013 · W7CIN @ DET27–24CIN
2009 · W13DET @ CIN13–23CIN
2005 · W15CIN @ DET41–17CIN
2001 · W7CIN @ DET31–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CIN
DETQ1 15:00758Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:50717Punt7–0
DETQ1 8:12648Turnover7–0
CINQ1 4:5236Punt7–0
DETQ1 3:17724Punt7–0
CINQ2 14:4910Turnover7–0
DETQ2 14:42516Touchdown14–0
CINQ2 12:16726Punt14–0
DETQ2 8:35424Punt14–0
CINQ2 6:2252Turnover14–0
DETQ2 5:1234Punt14–0
CINQ2 3:47965Field goal14–3
CINQ3 15:0025Turnover14–3
DETQ3 14:08638Touchdown21–3
CINQ3 11:2537Punt21–3
DETQ3 9:53780Touchdown28–3
CINQ3 5:431267Touchdown28–10
DETQ4 14:51311Punt28–10
CINQ4 12:29471Touchdown28–17
DETQ4 10:22868Touchdown35–17
CINQ4 5:14863Touchdown35–24
DETQ4 3:013-4Punt37–24
CINQ4 1:541-7Safety37–24
DETQ4 1:4910End of half37–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/2325830
David Montgomery1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery18653.61
Jahmyr Gibbs12544.50
Jameson Williams111.00
Jared Goff2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown891000
Sam LaPorta56921
Jahmyr Gibbs22331
Isaac TeSlaa11121
Brock Wright2391
Jameson Williams1190
David Montgomery1160

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning26/4025133

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Browning4317.80
Samaje Perine4276.80
Chase Brown8273.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase6101102
Andrei Iosivas57820
Tee Higgins37221
Chase Brown78210
Mike Gesicki25150
Samaje Perine2220
Drew Sample11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.85
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.44