Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.004
- 43.4%Success rate43.1%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.24CPOE-3.33
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.9%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 1.76Points / drive1.75
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/34 | 372 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 155 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/51 | 357 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 9 | 15 | 155 | 2 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.05