2013 · Week 7

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

27·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapLions
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.004
  • 43.4%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +1.24CPOE-3.33
  • 41.9%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.75
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DET @ CIN37–24DET
2021 · W6CIN @ DET34–11CIN
2017 · W16DET @ CIN17–26CIN
2009 · W13DET @ CIN13–23CIN
2005 · W15CIN @ DET41–17CIN
2001 · W7CIN @ DET31–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:54490Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 10:591680Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 3:0240Punt7–7
DETQ1 2:101256Field goal7–10
CINQ2 11:43866Missed field goal7–10
DETQ2 7:171147Missed field goal7–10
CINQ2 2:17740Touchdown14–10
DETQ2 0:4129End of half14–10
CINQ3 15:00980Touchdown21–10
DETQ3 10:42990Touchdown21–17
CINQ3 8:17960Field goal24–17
DETQ3 3:3738Punt24–17
CINQ3 2:0239Punt24–17
DETQ4 14:52688Touchdown24–24
CINQ4 11:59413Punt24–24
DETQ4 10:14826Punt24–24
CINQ4 6:04748Punt24–24
DETQ4 1:43517Punt24–24
CINQ4 0:26215Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/3437230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard7273.90
BenJarvus Green-Ellis10242.40
Andy Dalton166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green681551
Jermaine Gresham45640
Marvin Jones46571
Tyler Eifert34451
Giovani Bernard56320
Mohamed Sanu12120
Dane Sanzenbacher1170

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/5135730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush20502.50
Joique Bell5275.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson9151552
Kevin Ogletree22500
Reggie Bush35440
Kris Durham58410
Joique Bell34290
Ryan Broyles24160
Joseph Fauria14150
Brandon Pettigrew3771

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.05