2001 · Week 7

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

13·12

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

-0.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.195
  • 41.1%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.011EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.247
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.16Points / drive0.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7CAR @ NYJ13–6CAR
2021 · W1NYJ @ CAR14–19CAR
2017 · W12CAR @ NYJ35–27CAR
2013 · W15NYJ @ CAR20–30CAR
2009 · W12CAR @ NYJ6–17NYJ
2005 · W10NYJ @ CAR3–30CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CAR
NYJQ1 15:001056Opp touchdown0–6
CARQ1 8:2700Opp touchdown0–6
NYJQ1 8:27633Punt0–6
CARQ1 5:16818Opp touchdown7–6
NYJQ1 1:4600Opp touchdown7–6
CARQ1 1:4636Punt7–6
NYJQ1 0:30419Punt7–6
CARQ2 13:13843Punt7–6
NYJQ2 9:20439Punt7–6
CARQ2 7:13526Punt7–6
NYJQ2 5:05741Punt7–6
CARQ2 2:2838Punt7–6
NYJQ2 1:19645Turnover7–9
CARQ2 0:0200Field goal7–9
CARQ3 15:003-1Punt7–9
NYJQ3 13:5310Turnover7–9
CARQ3 13:4639Field goal7–12
NYJQ3 12:10741Field goal10–12
CARQ3 7:5235Punt10–12
NYJQ3 7:073-1Punt10–12
CARQ3 5:1834Punt10–12
NYJQ3 3:43527Turnover10–12
CARQ3 1:11615Punt10–12
NYJQ4 14:10623Punt10–12
CARQ4 11:40416Punt10–12
NYJQ4 9:1838Punt10–12
CARQ4 7:0610Turnover10–12
NYJQ4 6:5335Field goal13–12
CARQ4 4:533-4Punt13–12
NYJQ4 3:48523Punt13–12
CARQ4 1:01517Turnover on downs13–12
NYJQ4 0:2000End of half13–12

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde21/3418103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin271595.90
Laveranues Coles11111.00
Vinny Testaverde320.70
LaMont Jordan122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles710910
Curtis Martin77390
Kevin Swayne35350
Matt Hatchette0200
Anthony Becht0100
Windrell Hayes0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke12/347601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley14523.70
Chris Weinke273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Hayes38230
Isaac Byrd26170
Muhsin Muhammad27150
Wesley Walls27110
Richard Huntley2230
Patrick Jeffers0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.39