Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.195
- 41.1%Success rate35.9%
- +0.011EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.247
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.0%
- 37.4%Third-down rate30.3%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.16Points / drive0.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 21/34 | 181 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 27 | 159 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 7 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 7 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Windrell Hayes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 12/34 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.39