Closing spread
CAR -9.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play+0.011
- 40.1%Success rate41.2%
- -0.093EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.116
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.90
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 11/21 | 98 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 10/20 | 119 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.54