2017 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

35·27

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJets
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.073
  • 41.3%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.85CPOE+0.98
  • 43.2%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.51
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7CAR @ NYJ13–6CAR
2021 · W1NYJ @ CAR14–19CAR
2013 · W15NYJ @ CAR20–30CAR
2009 · W12CAR @ NYJ6–17NYJ
2005 · W10NYJ @ CAR3–30CAR
2001 · W7NYJ @ CAR13–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYJ
CARQ1 15:001148Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 9:55955Field goal3–3
CARQ1 5:1358Punt3–3
NYJQ1 2:07520Punt3–3
CARQ2 14:16871Touchdown9–3
NYJQ2 10:02415Punt9–3
CARQ2 8:3437Punt9–3
NYJQ2 7:0531Punt9–3
CARQ2 6:10544Field goal12–3
NYJQ2 3:5935Punt12–3
CARQ2 2:3930Punt12–3
NYJQ2 2:12575Touchdown12–10
CARQ2 1:1236End of half12–10
NYJQ3 15:003-5Punt12–10
CARQ3 13:1934Punt12–10
NYJQ3 11:22834Punt12–10
CARQ3 7:443-1Punt12–10
NYJQ3 6:18253Touchdown12–17
CARQ3 5:411072Touchdown18–17
NYJQ3 1:121150Field goal18–20
CARQ4 14:0136Punt18–20
NYJQ4 12:582-10Opp touchdown26–20
NYJQ4 12:053-2Opp touchdown32–20
NYJQ4 9:54875Touchdown32–27
CARQ4 5:321134Field goal35–27
NYJQ4 0:21225End of half35–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton11/2816800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey7628.90
Kaelin Clay12929.00
Cam Newton9283.11
Jonathan Stewart15261.71
Cameron Artis-Payne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess7121080
Christian McCaffrey25350
Ed Dickson13150
Greg Olsen14100
Brenton Bersin0100
Kaelin Clay0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown19/3630730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell9343.80
Josh McCown22814.00
Matt Forte10262.60
Elijah McGuire5214.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen6101462
Jermaine Kearse7111051
Austin Seferian-Jenkins27270
Elijah McGuire11130
Bilal Powell11120
Matt Forte0100
Chad Hansen0100
JoJo Natson11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.20