Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.073
- 41.3%Success rate38.5%
- +0.040EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.85CPOE+0.98
- 43.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.87Points / drive1.51
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11/28 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 7 | 12 | 108 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 19/36 | 307 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 6 | 10 | 146 | 2 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 7 | 11 | 105 | 1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Natson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.20