Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.060
- 40.6%Success rate39.7%
- -0.092EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.022EPA / rush+0.011
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.62CPOE-5.62
- 37.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.39Points / drive1.61
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/34 | 130 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Rosario | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 13/17 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
| Kellen Clemens | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 75 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.15