2009 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

6·17

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJets
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.060
  • 40.6%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.022EPA / rush+0.011
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -3.62CPOE-5.62
  • 37.2%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.61
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7CAR @ NYJ13–6CAR
2021 · W1NYJ @ CAR14–19CAR
2017 · W12CAR @ NYJ35–27CAR
2013 · W15NYJ @ CAR20–30CAR
2005 · W10NYJ @ CAR3–30CAR
2001 · W7NYJ @ CAR13–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYJ
CARQ1 15:001241Opp touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:4834Punt0–7
NYJQ1 6:35711Missed field goal0–7
CARQ1 2:4737Punt0–7
NYJQ1 1:14411Punt0–7
CARQ2 14:45814Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 10:11931Punt3–7
CARQ2 4:3310Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 4:25431Turnover3–7
CARQ2 2:1434Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 1:48538Touchdown3–14
CARQ2 0:2818End of half3–14
NYJQ3 15:00972Turnover3–14
CARQ3 9:1234Punt3–14
NYJQ3 7:40729Punt3–14
CARQ3 3:5167Punt3–14
NYJQ3 0:46414Turnover3–14
CARQ4 14:12640Field goal6–14
NYJQ4 11:45410Punt6–14
CARQ4 8:473-1Punt6–14
NYJQ4 7:46631Field goal6–17
CARQ4 3:391150Turnover6–17
NYJQ4 1:1045Punt6–17
CARQ4 0:3441Turnover on downs6–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme14/3413004

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams16402.50
Jonathan Stewart9353.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Rosario47620
Dwayne Jarrett25430
DeAngelo Williams46100
Steve Smith1650
Gary Barnidge1140
Muhsin Muhammad1620
Jonathan Stewart0100
Tyrell Sutton0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez13/1715401
Kellen Clemens0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones25753.01
Shonn Greene10363.60
Mark Sanchez3279.00
Danny Woodhead111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller44680
Braylon Edwards34400
Danny Woodhead22230
Jerricho Cotchery12120
Thomas Jones34110
Shonn Greene0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.15