Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.129
- 43.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.007EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.5%
- +1.44CPOE-4.21
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.80Points / drive1.54
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/25 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4/7 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Legette | 9 | 11 | 92 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 10/22 | 126 | 0 | 2 |
| Justin Fields | 6/12 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.96