2025 · Week 7

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

13·6

Jets

New York

QB Justin Fields

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJets
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +1.44CPOE-4.21
  • 35.7%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.54
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1NYJ @ CAR14–19CAR
2017 · W12CAR @ NYJ35–27CAR
2013 · W15NYJ @ CAR20–30CAR
2009 · W12CAR @ NYJ6–17NYJ
2005 · W10NYJ @ CAR3–30CAR
2001 · W7NYJ @ CAR13–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00622Turnover on downs0–0
CARQ1 12:161254Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 5:42617Punt3–0
CARQ1 2:41742Turnover on downs3–0
NYJQ2 14:50723Field goal3–3
CARQ2 11:02417Punt3–3
NYJQ2 8:52311Punt3–3
CARQ2 7:3744Punt3–3
NYJQ2 6:07311Punt3–3
CARQ2 3:41757Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 1:11713End of half10–3
CARQ3 15:00938Field goal13–3
NYJQ3 10:40621Punt13–3
CARQ3 7:0663Punt13–3
NYJQ3 3:451041Turnover13–3
CARQ3 0:341142Punt13–3
NYJQ4 8:53861Field goal13–6
CARQ4 6:2634Punt13–6
NYJQ4 4:4120Turnover13–6
CARQ4 4:2838Punt13–6
NYJQ4 2:4930Punt13–6
CARQ4 1:44335End of half13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young15/2513810
Andy Dalton4/76000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle17794.60
Chuba Hubbard14312.20
Bryce Young2105.00
Jimmy Horn Jr.177.00
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Legette911921
Tetairoa McMillan35330
Chuba Hubbard23240
Mitchell Evans23240
Rico Dowdle12170
Jimmy Horn Jr.1280
Tommy Tremble1100
Ja'Tavion Sanders0200
Jalen Coker0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor10/2212602
Justin Fields6/124600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall11383.50
Justin Fields4225.50
Tyrod Taylor3113.70
Isaiah Davis2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Johnson33600
Mason Taylor35310
Josh Reynolds39290
Isaiah Davis24220
Allen Lazard23160
Breece Hall23140
Jeremy Ruckert0100
Arian Smith1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.96