2013 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

20·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CAR -10

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.105EPA / play+0.050
  • 37.6%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -4.00CPOE+1.02
  • 38.8%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.03
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7CAR @ NYJ13–6CAR
2021 · W1NYJ @ CAR14–19CAR
2017 · W12CAR @ NYJ35–27CAR
2009 · W12CAR @ NYJ6–17NYJ
2005 · W10NYJ @ CAR3–30CAR
2001 · W7NYJ @ CAR13–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CAR
CARQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:48614Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:16850Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 4:39944Field goal3–3
CARQ2 15:001485Field goal3–6
NYJQ2 6:46870Field goal6–6
CARQ2 3:49172Touchdown6–13
NYJQ2 3:2931Punt6–13
CARQ2 2:08534Field goal6–16
NYJQ2 0:0814End of half6–16
NYJQ3 15:003-6Punt6–16
CARQ3 13:341166Turnover on downs6–16
NYJQ3 7:501072Touchdown13–16
CARQ3 3:04829Punt13–16
NYJQ4 14:45411Punt13–16
CARQ4 12:50414Touchdown13–23
NYJQ4 11:05610Opp touchdown13–30
NYJQ4 8:171277Touchdown20–30
CARQ4 3:50628End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith15/2816711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory11666.00
Geno Smith6447.30
Bilal Powell8374.60
Saalim Hakim188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Cumberland34501
David Nelson34440
Jeremy Kerley13250
Bilal Powell44190
Santonio Holmes28140
Kellen Winslow11120
Chris Ivory0100
Saalim Hakim0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2427310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams15815.40
Ted Ginn11414.00
Cam Newton7121.70
Brandon LaFell166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen58880
DeAngelo Williams34871
Brandon LaFell33610
Steve Smith35200
Ted Ginn11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.88