Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play+0.050
- 37.6%Success rate42.1%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- -4.00CPOE+1.02
- 38.8%Third-down rate44.3%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.25Points / drive2.03
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15/28 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Saalim Hakim | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saalim Hakim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/24 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 4 | 87 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88