2021 · Week 1

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

14·19

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.132
  • 42.1%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -7.25CPOE-7.50
  • 37.8%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.43
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7CAR @ NYJ13–6CAR
2017 · W12CAR @ NYJ35–27CAR
2013 · W15NYJ @ CAR20–30CAR
2009 · W12CAR @ NYJ6–17NYJ
2005 · W10NYJ @ CAR3–30CAR
2001 · W7NYJ @ CAR13–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CAR
NYJQ1 15:0062Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:24526Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:5832Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:38417Punt0–0
NYJQ1 4:37610Punt0–0
CARQ1 1:101181Turnover0–0
NYJQ2 11:30537Turnover0–0
CARQ2 9:26529Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 7:26732Turnover on downs0–9
CARQ2 4:14157Touchdown0–9
NYJQ2 4:063-3Punt0–9
CARQ2 2:35762Touchdown0–16
NYJQ2 0:3512End of half0–16
CARQ3 15:003-1Punt0–16
NYJQ3 13:206-2Punt0–16
CARQ3 11:38522Punt0–16
NYJQ3 9:2332Punt0–16
CARQ3 7:0333Punt0–16
NYJQ3 6:05870Touchdown8–16
CARQ3 1:251157Field goal8–19
NYJQ4 8:4242Punt8–19
CARQ4 7:00416Punt8–19
NYJQ4 4:271198Touchdown14–19
CARQ4 1:56218End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson20/3725821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman9242.70
Ty Johnson4153.80
Michael Carter461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis57972
Braxton Berrios57510
Denzel Mims11400
Tyler Kroft35260
Ryan Griffin36220
Michael Carter12140
Ty Johnson13110
Jeff Smith0100
Elijah Moore14-30

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold24/3527910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey21984.70
DJ Moore11414.00
Sam Darnold5-1-0.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey99890
DJ Moore68800
Robbie Chosen13571
Terrace Marshall Jr.36260
Ian Thomas12170
Dan Arnold2360
Chuba Hubbard2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.66