Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.132
- 42.1%Success rate41.2%
- -0.066EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.3%
- -7.25CPOE-7.50
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.1%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.43
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 35 points. CAR are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 20/37 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 7 | 97 | 2 |
| Braxton Berrios | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/35 | 279 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66