Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 12/27 | 133 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.