Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:13 | 8 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:01 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 0:28 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 12:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:15 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 8:40 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 6:11 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q2 1:14 | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:27 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| PHI | Q3 11:36 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 10:54 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| PHI | Q3 7:29 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 2:45 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| PHI | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–3 |
| LV | Q4 12:49 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 20–3 |
| PHI | Q4 8:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–3 |
| LV | Q4 7:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–3 |
| PHI | Q4 5:06 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| LV | Q4 2:28 | 6 | 23 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 12/27 | 133 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.