Closing spread
PHI -8.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 30/52 | 365 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.