Closing spread
PHI -8.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:18 | 6 | 24 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 8:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:37 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 4:40 | 8 | 62 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 14:23 | 11 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 9:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 8:09 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 6:39 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 4:33 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 10:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–13 |
| PHI | Q3 8:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 6:54 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 10–13 |
| PHI | Q3 4:35 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LV | Q3 0:45 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| PHI | Q4 12:54 | 3 | 66 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 11:00 | 11 | 79 | Missed field goal | 13–20 |
| PHI | Q4 5:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 4:17 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| PHI | Q4 2:17 | 11 | 80 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| LV | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 30/52 | 365 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.