Closing spread
PHI -12.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.034
- 38.6%Success rate43.3%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.047
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.91CPOE+3.26
- 34.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.25Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/25 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/15 | 175 | 3 | 0 |
| Tanner McKee | 3/3 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tank Bigsby | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 70 | 2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Darius Cooper | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.37
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.14