2025 · Week 15

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kenny Pickett

0·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

PHI -12.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapEagles
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.034
  • 38.6%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.047
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -0.91CPOE+3.26
  • 34.1%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W7PHI @ LV22–33RAIDERS
2017 · W16OAK @ PHI10–19PHI
2013 · W9PHI @ OAK49–20PHI
2009 · W6PHI @ OAK9–13RAIDERS
2005 · W3OAK @ PHI20–23PHI
2001 · W7OAK @ PHI20–10RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001447Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 7:511326Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ1 1:16745Field goal0–10
LVQ2 12:4933Punt0–10
PHIQ2 11:5234Punt0–10
LVQ2 10:123-2Punt0–10
PHIQ2 8:041165Touchdown0–17
LVQ2 1:57726Punt0–17
PHIQ2 0:2414End of half0–17
LVQ3 15:00729Turnover0–17
PHIQ3 11:191183Touchdown0–24
LVQ3 4:523-10Punt0–24
PHIQ3 2:43560Touchdown0–31
LVQ4 14:543-6Punt0–31
PHIQ4 13:171779Turnover on downs0–31
LVQ4 1:5539End of half0–31

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett15/256401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty9353.90
Kenny Pickett273.50
Dylan Laube242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers68280
Jack Bech23170
Tyler Lockett24100
Ashton Jeanty4670
Raheem Mostert1120
Tre Tucker0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts12/1517530
Tanner McKee3/33300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley22783.51
Tank Bigsby17573.40
Jalen Hurts7395.60
Tanner McKee199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert67702
DeVonta Smith22500
A.J. Brown22411
Darius Cooper22290
Saquon Barkley23140
Grant Calcaterra1140
Tank Bigsby0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.37
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.14