Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/46 | 269 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.