2009 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

9·13

Raiders

Oakland

QB JaMarcus Russell

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15LV @ PHI0–31PHI
2021 · W7PHI @ LV22–33RAIDERS
2017 · W16OAK @ PHI10–19PHI
2013 · W9PHI @ OAK49–20PHI
2005 · W3OAK @ PHI20–23PHI
2001 · W7OAK @ PHI20–10RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–OAK
LVQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:283-8Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:0931Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:12413Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:4110Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 7:3334Missed field goal0–0
LVQ1 6:5738Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:45562Field goal3–0
LVQ1 2:27186Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 2:05617Punt3–7
LVQ2 14:431263Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 7:451045Punt3–10
LVQ2 3:44416Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 1:53520Field goal6–10
LVQ2 0:06120End of half6–10
PHIQ3 15:00747Missed field goal6–10
LVQ3 11:25528Turnover on downs6–10
PHIQ3 8:5436Punt6–10
LVQ3 6:57727Punt6–10
PHIQ3 3:1832Punt6–10
LVQ3 2:26613Punt6–10
PHIQ4 14:2531Punt6–10
LVQ4 13:27632Field goal6–13
PHIQ4 10:253-5Punt6–13
LVQ4 8:5430Punt6–13
PHIQ4 7:49442Field goal9–13
LVQ4 6:06422Punt9–13
PHIQ4 3:42737Turnover on downs9–13
LVQ4 2:14410End of half9–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb22/4626900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook6508.30
LeSean McCoy5132.60
Donovan McNabb284.00
Mike Vick1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson612940
Brian Westbrook911910
Brent Celek47750
Jeremy Maclin1660
Alex Smith0200
Jason Avant0200
LeSean McCoy0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.5%4.2%2.8%7.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.