Closing spread
LV -1
Total
48
Model margin
-1.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.001
- 46.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.161
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.39CPOE+1.92
- 45.5%Third-down rate36.8%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.39Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. LV are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/34 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 31/34 | 323 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 6 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.20