Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 22/28 | 406 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 6 | 150 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 6 | 139 | 3 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Jeff Maehl | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.