2013 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

49·20

Raiders

Oakland

QB Terrelle Pryor

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. OAK are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15LV @ PHI0–31PHI
2021 · W7PHI @ LV22–33RAIDERS
2017 · W16OAK @ PHI10–19PHI
2009 · W6PHI @ OAK9–13RAIDERS
2005 · W3OAK @ PHI20–23PHI
2001 · W7OAK @ PHI20–10RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–OAK
LVQ1 15:001045Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:161194Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 5:18774Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 2:02882Touchdown14–3
LVQ2 14:17526Punt20–3
PHIQ2 11:26163Touchdown21–3
LVQ2 11:17780Touchdown21–10
PHIQ2 7:34885Touchdown28–10
LVQ2 4:03512Punt28–10
PHIQ2 1:4934Punt28–10
LVQ2 0:59840Field goal28–13
PHIQ2 0:0300End of half28–13
PHIQ3 15:00561Touchdown35–13
LVQ3 14:143-10Punt35–13
PHIQ3 12:24357Touchdown42–13
LVQ3 11:33625Punt42–13
PHIQ3 8:5037Punt42–13
LVQ3 7:04428Punt42–13
PHIQ3 5:46368Touchdown49–13
LVQ3 4:28655Turnover49–13
PHIQ3 2:0538Punt49–13
LVQ3 0:48829Punt49–13
PHIQ4 12:523-1Punt49–13
LVQ4 11:44627Turnover49–13
PHIQ4 9:2339Punt49–13
LVQ4 7:561058Turnover on downs49–13
PHIQ4 4:4737Punt49–13
LVQ4 3:221071Touchdown49–20
PHIQ4 0:5200End of half49–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles22/2840670
Matt Barkley2/31300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bryce Brown7547.70
LeSean McCoy12443.70
Nick Foles4102.50
Matt Barkley2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson561501
Riley Cooper561393
Zach Ertz56421
LeSean McCoy44361
Brent Celek34271
Jeff Maehl11190
Bryce Brown1160
Jason Avant0100
James Casey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.88

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.