2017 · Week 16

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

10·19

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -10

Total

46

Model margin

+1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15LV @ PHI0–31PHI
2021 · W7PHI @ LV22–33RAIDERS
2013 · W9PHI @ OAK49–20PHI
2009 · W6PHI @ OAK9–13RAIDERS
2005 · W3OAK @ PHI20–23PHI
2001 · W7OAK @ PHI20–10RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:59728Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 9:071168Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 2:5137Punt0–7
PHIQ1 1:3469Punt0–7
LVQ2 14:00374Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 12:36526Punt7–7
LVQ2 10:331352Punt7–7
PHIQ2 3:081371Missed field goal7–7
LVQ2 0:1100End of half7–7
LVQ3 15:00764Field goal10–7
PHIQ3 10:50412Punt10–7
LVQ3 8:513-2Punt10–7
PHIQ3 7:133-9Punt10–7
LVQ3 5:3535Turnover10–7
PHIQ3 4:16214Turnover10–7
LVQ3 3:5510Turnover10–7
PHIQ3 3:46413Field goal10–10
LVQ3 2:13414Punt10–10
PHIQ4 13:573-18Punt10–10
LVQ4 12:18916Missed field goal10–10
PHIQ4 7:5810Turnover10–10
LVQ4 7:52431Turnover10–10
PHIQ4 6:3536Punt10–10
LVQ4 4:473-1Punt10–10
PHIQ4 2:193-2Punt10–10
LVQ4 1:0720Turnover10–10
PHIQ4 0:54521Field goal10–13
LVQ4 0:224-13Opp touchdown10–19

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles19/3816311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi14523.70
Corey Clement2147.00
LeGarrette Blount5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz914810
Nelson Agholor47350
Jay Ajayi23211
Brent Celek12120
Corey Clement1260
Torrey Smith1550
LeGarrette Blount1130
Alshon Jeffery0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.91

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.