Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
46
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 19/38 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 14 | 81 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.