Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.125
- 42.2%Success rate36.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.117
- 6.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- 37.7%Third-down rate32.7%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.49Points / drive0.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/29 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 33 | 118 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 7 | 13 | 81 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Dominguez | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Leaf | 16/32 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Emmitt Smith | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53