2001 · Week 11

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

26·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Ryan Leaf

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 72°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCowboys
  • -0.044EPA / play-0.125
  • 42.2%Success rate36.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.132
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.117
  • 6.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • 37.7%Third-down rate32.7%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive0.93
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–0 since 1999

DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8DAL @ DEN24–44DEN
2021 · W9DEN @ DAL30–16DEN
2017 · W2DAL @ DEN17–42DEN
2013 · W5DEN @ DAL51–48DEN
2009 · W4DAL @ DEN10–17DEN
2005 · W12DEN @ DAL24–21DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–DAL
DENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:203-3Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:111026Field goal3–0
DALQ1 6:131066Field goal3–3
DENQ1 0:321267Touchdown10–3
DALQ2 9:582-14Turnover16–3
DENQ2 8:5614Touchdown17–3
DALQ2 8:5235Punt17–3
DENQ2 6:4238Punt17–3
DALQ2 5:14725Punt17–3
DENQ2 1:46228Turnover17–3
DALQ2 1:273-3Punt17–3
DENQ2 1:002-2End of half17–3
DALQ3 15:0037Punt17–3
DENQ3 14:00849Field goal20–3
DALQ3 9:0200Field goal20–3
DENQ3 8:4735Field goal23–3
DALQ3 7:133-1Punt23–3
DENQ3 5:35622Punt23–3
DALQ3 1:473-2Punt23–3
DENQ3 0:16832Field goal26–3
DALQ4 11:13960Touchdown26–10
DENQ4 8:1230Opp touchdown26–17
DALQ4 7:2900Opp touchdown26–17
DENQ4 7:29521Punt26–17
DALQ4 4:31614Punt26–17
DENQ4 3:07416Punt26–17
DALQ4 1:50437Touchdown26–24
DENQ4 1:102-2End of half26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese17/2917111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson331183.61
Olandis Gary252.50
Brian Griese4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith713810
Desmond Clark25390
Mike Anderson23130
Matt Dominguez11120
Olandis Gary1190
Keith Poole1160
Kevin Kasper0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Leaf16/3219300
Joey Galloway1/1-100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick5173.42
Emmitt Smith991.00
Michael Wiley210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail69840
Joey Galloway610640
Troy Hambrick11230
Mike Lucky1290
Emmitt Smith2270
J.J. Huggins1150
Darrin Chiaverini0500
Reggie Swinton0100
Ken-Yon Rambo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53