Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.119
- 43.8%Success rate38.4%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.110
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.45CPOE-2.16
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.9%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.85Points / drive1.24
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 30/50 | 238 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 10 | 13 | 97 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 16 | 59 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 22/32 | 231 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 25 | 118 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 8 | 62 | 2 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.45