2017 · Week 2

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

17·42

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBroncos
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.119
  • 43.8%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.110
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.45CPOE-2.16
  • 43.3%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.24
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–0 since 1999

DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8DAL @ DEN24–44DEN
2021 · W9DEN @ DAL30–16DEN
2013 · W5DEN @ DAL51–48DEN
2009 · W4DAL @ DEN10–17DEN
2005 · W12DEN @ DAL24–21DEN
2001 · W11DEN @ DAL26–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DEN
DALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:10878Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 9:25420Punt0–7
DENQ1 6:23963Missed field goal0–7
DALQ1 2:24622Punt0–7
DENQ2 14:483-11Turnover0–7
DALQ2 13:2523Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 12:391466Touchdown7–14
DALQ2 5:5446Punt7–14
DENQ2 4:20851Touchdown7–21
DALQ2 1:38737Field goal10–21
DENQ2 0:0200End of half10–21
DENQ3 15:001775Touchdown10–28
DALQ3 7:564-5Turnover10–28
DENQ3 6:28223Touchdown10–35
DALQ3 6:141133Turnover on downs10–35
DENQ3 2:1010Turnover10–35
DALQ3 1:59644Touchdown17–35
DENQ4 14:2438Punt17–35
DALQ4 12:2337Punt17–35
DENQ4 11:33825Punt17–35
DALQ4 6:13953Turnover on downs17–35
DENQ4 3:4633Punt17–35
DALQ4 3:221031Opp touchdown17–42
DALQ4 0:5328End of half17–42

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott30/5023822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dak Prescott3248.00
Rod Smith284.00
Ezekiel Elliott980.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten1013971
Dez Bryant716591
Cole Beasley48330
Brice Butler12180
Terrance Williams45170
Ezekiel Elliott45140

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian22/3223141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson251184.71
Jamaal Charles9465.10
Trevor Siemian5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas68710
Emmanuel Sanders68622
C.J. Anderson33361
Cody Latimer22220
Jeff Heuerman11150
Virgil Green23111
Bennie Fowler1380
Jamaal Charles1160
A.J. Derby0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.45