Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.205EPA / play+0.062
- 50.2%Success rate47.2%
- +0.346EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.029EPA / rush+0.011
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +6.21CPOE+0.26
- 47.1%Third-down rate35.6%
- 81.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.21
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 33/42 | 414 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -8 | -2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 9 | 12 | 122 | 2 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 5 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/36 | 506 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 4 | 151 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 10 | 141 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 10 | 121 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.51