2013 · Week 5

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

51·48

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

56.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCowboys
  • +0.205EPA / play+0.062
  • 50.2%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.346EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.029EPA / rush+0.011
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +6.21CPOE+0.26
  • 47.1%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 81.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.21
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–0 since 1999

DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8DAL @ DEN24–44DEN
2021 · W9DEN @ DAL30–16DEN
2017 · W2DAL @ DEN17–42DEN
2009 · W4DAL @ DEN10–17DEN
2005 · W12DEN @ DAL24–21DEN
2001 · W11DEN @ DAL26–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–DAL
DALQ1 15:001179Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 8:06432Turnover0–7
DALQ1 6:53745Touchdown0–14
DENQ1 3:18380Touchdown7–14
DALQ1 2:28960Field goal7–17
DENQ2 12:14860Touchdown14–17
DALQ2 9:06112Turnover14–17
DENQ2 8:49732Touchdown21–17
DALQ2 5:2232Punt21–17
DENQ2 3:10838Touchdown28–17
DALQ2 0:46243Field goal28–20
DENQ3 15:001472Touchdown35–20
DALQ3 8:03283Touchdown35–27
DENQ3 7:08760Field goal38–27
DALQ3 3:23860Touchdown38–33
DENQ3 0:1410Turnover38–33
DALQ3 0:02551Touchdown38–41
DENQ4 13:381046Field goal41–41
DALQ4 9:37593Touchdown41–48
DENQ4 7:191083Touchdown48–48
DALQ4 2:392-6Turnover48–48
DENQ4 1:57519Field goal51–48

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning33/4241441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno19934.91
Ronnie Hillman7172.40
Montee Ball111.00
Peyton Manning4-8-2.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julius Thomas9121222
Eric Decker58871
Knowshon Moreno55570
Demaryius Thomas56570
Wes Welker56491
Ronnie Hillman44420

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/3650651

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray12433.61
Tony Romo177.00
Terrance Williams122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams441511
Dez Bryant6101412
Jason Witten7101211
Cole Beasley44471
Gavin Escobar13250
Dwayne Harris12130
DeMarco Murray1150
James Hanna1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.51