Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+5.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.084
- 44.7%Success rate46.8%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.34CPOE+1.99
- 38.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.89Points / drive2.44
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/28 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 111 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 5 | 85 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/39 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 5 | 7 | 33 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.16