2021 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

30·16

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -10.5

Total

50

Model margin

+5.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCowboys
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.7%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.34CPOE+1.99
  • 38.3%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.44
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–0 since 1999

DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8DAL @ DEN24–44DEN
2017 · W2DAL @ DEN17–42DEN
2013 · W5DEN @ DAL51–48DEN
2009 · W4DAL @ DEN10–17DEN
2005 · W12DEN @ DAL24–21DEN
2001 · W11DEN @ DAL26–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–DAL
DALQ1 15:0048Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 13:343-10Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:551053Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 8:071277Touchdown6–0
DALQ1 1:48420Punt6–0
DENQ2 15:00680Touchdown13–0
DALQ2 12:13420Punt13–0
DENQ2 10:481155Field goal16–0
DALQ2 3:4158Punt16–0
DENQ2 1:39725End of half16–0
DENQ3 15:003-4Punt16–0
DENQ3 12:43972Field goal19–0
DALQ3 8:0849Turnover on downs19–0
DENQ3 6:4735Missed field goal19–0
DALQ3 4:4334Punt19–0
DENQ3 3:481492Touchdown27–0
DALQ4 11:18623Turnover27–0
DENQ4 9:47415Field goal30–0
DALQ4 6:32980Touchdown30–8
DENQ4 4:0832Punt30–8
DALQ4 3:031165Touchdown30–16
DENQ4 0:5500End of half30–16

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/2824910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams171116.50
Melvin Gordon21803.81
Teddy Bridgewater3-1-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick45851
Jerry Jeudy68690
Kendall Hinton11400
Albert Okwuegbunam45250
Melvin Gordon22150
Courtland Sutton1290
Eric Saubert1160

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3923221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott10515.10
Dak Prescott2168.00
Tony Pollard4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz45540
Amari Cooper25370
Malik Turner57332
Tony Pollard12320
Cedrick Wilson Jr.25280
Ezekiel Elliott33250
CeeDee Lamb29230
Noah Brown0100
Sean McKeon0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.16