Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.023
- 44.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.067EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.97Points / drive1.55
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/24 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 7 | 98 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 29/44 | 232 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 20 | 55 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.65