Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.023
- 44.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.067EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.97Points / drive1.55
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:55 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:48 | 7 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:10 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 3:46 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 14:17 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 12:32 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 8:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:21 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q2 2:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q2 1:38 | 8 | 15 | End of half | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q3 12:07 | 12 | 96 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| DAL | Q3 5:47 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 21–14 |
| DEN | Q3 0:33 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| DAL | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 10 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| DEN | Q4 13:36 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DAL | Q4 11:35 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 21–21 |
| DEN | Q4 7:42 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DAL | Q4 4:32 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DEN | Q4 1:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DAL | Q4 0:44 | 3 | 2 | End of half | 21–21 |
| DEN | OT | 2 | 62 | Field goal | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/24 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 7 | 98 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 29/44 | 232 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 20 | 55 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.65