2009 · Week 4

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

10·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBroncos
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.026
  • 45.5%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.107
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.70CPOE-2.00
  • 40.5%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.49
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–0 since 1999

DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8DAL @ DEN24–44DEN
2021 · W9DEN @ DAL30–16DEN
2017 · W2DAL @ DEN17–42DEN
2013 · W5DEN @ DAL51–48DEN
2005 · W12DEN @ DAL24–21DEN
2001 · W11DEN @ DAL26–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DEN
DALQ1 15:00815Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:4035Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:23848Field goal3–0
DENQ1 5:5635Punt3–0
DALQ1 4:24861Touchdown10–0
DENQ1 0:43615Punt10–0
DALQ2 13:11715Turnover10–6
DENQ2 10:1019Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 10:04619Punt10–7
DENQ2 6:281170Punt10–7
DALQ2 1:52625End of half10–7
DENQ3 15:0013Turnover10–7
DALQ3 14:48510Turnover10–7
DENQ3 12:40726Punt10–7
DALQ3 9:06514Punt10–7
DENQ3 6:111262Turnover on downs10–7
DALQ4 15:0033Punt10–7
DENQ4 13:32520Punt10–7
DALQ4 11:1867Punt10–7
DENQ4 9:35750Field goal10–10
DALQ4 5:58620Punt10–10
DENQ4 2:47373Touchdown10–17
DALQ4 1:46978Turnover on downs10–17
DENQ4 0:0100End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/4225501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber11413.71
Tashard Choice14332.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sam Hurd35620
Tashard Choice56470
Roy Williams37350
Jason Witten44310
Marion Barber22270
Miles Austin38190
Patrick Crayton37160
Martellus Bennett11130

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton20/2924320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno14654.60
Correll Buckhalter6376.20
LaMont Jordan2147.00
Kyle Orton300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall46911
Correll Buckhalter55550
Daniel Graham33360
Tony Scheffler33260
Eddie Royal26160
Knowshon Moreno22111
Jabar Gaffney1480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.36