Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.026
- 45.5%Success rate42.0%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.107
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.70CPOE-2.00
- 40.5%Third-down rate36.3%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.77Points / drive1.49
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/42 | 255 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Hurd | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 20/29 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.36