Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.036
- 47.2%Success rate43.7%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.89CPOE-1.38
- 41.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.53Points / drive2.10
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–0 since 1999
DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/31 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
| Joe Milton III | 3/4 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jaydon Blue | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 2 | 47 | 1 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/29 | 247 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 111 | 7.4 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin | 6 | 8 | 89 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83