2025 · Week 8

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

24·44

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Broncos

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBroncos
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.036
  • 47.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.89CPOE-1.38
  • 41.3%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.53Points / drive2.10
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–0 since 1999

DEN have won 7 straight. Meetings average 56.3 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9DEN @ DAL30–16DEN
2017 · W2DAL @ DEN17–42DEN
2013 · W5DEN @ DAL51–48DEN
2009 · W4DAL @ DEN10–17DEN
2005 · W12DEN @ DAL24–21DEN
2001 · W11DEN @ DAL26–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DEN
DENQ1 15:00318Turnover0–0
DALQ1 13:35751Field goal3–0
DENQ1 10:34669Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 8:133-3Punt3–7
DENQ1 5:43572Touchdown3–14
DALQ1 3:04824Punt3–14
DENQ2 14:4932Punt3–14
DALQ2 13:441358Touchdown10–14
DENQ2 7:29732Touchdown10–20
DALQ2 3:4739Punt10–20
DENQ2 2:14772Touchdown10–27
DALQ2 0:39313Turnover10–27
DENQ2 0:1400End of half10–27
DALQ3 15:001565Touchdown17–27
DENQ3 8:10532Field goal17–30
DALQ3 6:0264Punt17–30
DENQ3 3:181284Touchdown17–37
DALQ4 12:48749Turnover17–37
DENQ4 10:15938Touchdown17–44
DALQ4 7:14665Touchdown24–44
DENQ4 4:4439Punt24–44
DALQ4 2:2434Punt24–44
DENQ4 0:2800End of half24–44

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3118802
Joe Milton III3/45810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams13413.22
Dak Prescott6315.20
Jaydon Blue8293.60
Malik Davis231.50
CeeDee Lamb122.00
Hunter Luepke122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens79780
CeeDee Lamb710740
Jalen Tolbert22471
Luke Schoonmaker23250
Brevyn Spann-Ford1190
Javonte Williams1280
Ryan Flournoy1270
Jake Ferguson0100
KaVontae Turpin15-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix19/2924741

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins151117.40
RJ Harvey7466.62
Marvin Mims Jr.3186.00
Tyler Badie166.00
Jarrett Stidham1-1-1.00
Bo Nix1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Franklin68892
Courtland Sutton46670
Pat Bryant24401
Evan Engram44360
J.K. Dobbins22100
RJ Harvey1151
Nate Adkins0100
Marvin Mims Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83