Closing spread
OAK -13
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 22/38 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 6 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 10 | 17 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.