Closing spread
OAK -13
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:56 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:23 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 8:57 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:14 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:32 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 1:05 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:12 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 8:24 | 9 | 29 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q2 2:40 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LV | Q3 13:59 | 12 | 51 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| ARI | Q3 8:19 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:48 | 9 | 42 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| ARI | Q3 2:51 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:40 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| ARI | Q4 11:20 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 23–21 |
| LV | Q4 9:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–21 |
| ARI | Q4 7:26 | 4 | 13 | Missed field goal | 23–21 |
| LV | Q4 5:30 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 23–24 |
| ARI | Q4 1:47 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:18 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| ARI | Q4 0:12 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 31–31 |
| LV | OT | 5 | 20 | Punt | 31–31 |
| ARI | OT | 5 | 30 | Punt | 31–31 |
| ARI | OT | 2 | 7 | Field goal | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 22/38 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 6 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 10 | 17 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.